Presidential contest in Peru unpredictable.
| Autor | Jana, Elsa Chanduvi |
Just over two months before Peru's April 10 general election, 19 presidential candidates have registered with the Jurado Electoral Especial. Even though early polls show the actual battle will be between five of the contenders, many analysts say the final outcome is impossible to predict.
At the moment, the candidates from the right are ahead in the polls, with Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular out front. According to a Jan. 17 survey by Ipsos Peru, if the elections were held tomorrow, 33% would vote for Fujimori, the same percentage she registered in a December poll. Fighting for second place are Cesar Acuna, the candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (APP), and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, leader of Peruanos por el Kambio, (PPK), both polling at 13%. Following them are Alan Garcia of Alianza Popular with 8%, and economist Julio Guzman, representing Todos por el Peru, with 5%. Alejandro Toledo, the leader of Peru Posible, registered 3%.
Meanwhile, the percentage of voters who would definitely not favor Fujimori (something analysts call an anti-vote) dropped from 40% in December to 34% in January. The anti-vote percentages for former presidents Garcia (1985-1990 and 2006-2011) and Toledo (2001-2006) were 61 and 62, respectively.
Attempts at renovation
Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), whose 25-year sentence for violating human rights will end in February 2032. She is determined to show a renovated party and thus has distanced herself from the old guard (NotiSur, Oct. 19, 2012, and April 26, 2013). In December, she announced that three of the congressional deputies closest to her father--Martha Chavez, Luisa Maria Cuculiza and Alejandro Aguinaga (criticized for the forced sterilizations that were carried out during Fujimori's rule)--would not run for reelection. In addition, she has toned down her discourse, has recognized the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and has come out in favor of civil unions. She condemned the doctors involved in the forced sterilization program during her father's government, and expressed solidarity with the women victimized by that program. Analysts say her goal is to reduce the number of people voting against her (the anti-vote) as she looks toward the runoff election scheduled for June. She is succeeding.
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