President Evo Morales loses Bolivian reelection referendum.
| Autor | Gaudin, Andres |
After a decade of victories not only in presidential elections but also in legislative and even municipal contests, all by solid margins, Bolivian President Evo Morales suffered his first setback last month, losing a popular referendum that could have extended his hold on power beyond 2019.
The subject of the Feb. 21 plebiscite was a constitutional reform that, had it been accepted by a majority of voters, would have allowed Morales to seek reelection in 2019, when his current term--his third--expires. The decisive vote, which spells the end of another South American government committed to bringing about substantial economic and social changes, followed what had been a particularly violent month. The most serious episode took place just four days before the vote, on Feb. 17, when a mysterious fire claimed the lives of six people in the city hall of El Alto, a municipality near the capital of La Paz.
The Morales administration and many national and international analysts claim the result of the vote was greatly influenced by a so-called "dirty campaign." Others, however, see it as a natural shift in public opinion. Anthropologist Salvador Schavelzon, a researcher at the Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo in Brazil, believes the loss reflects "an exhaustion" of Morales' political base. Popular support has waned, he told the Argentine daily Pagina 12, as "the political project that promised decolonization gives way to a fragile model that ended up betting on unrealized industrialization." The outcome of the plebiscite cannot, therefore, be blamed just on dirty tricks, media influence, marketing techniques, or imperialist US intervention, Schavelzon opined.
'Strategic counteroffensive'
Recent elections in Argentina (Nov. 22, 2015) and Venezuela (Dec. 6, 2015), where conservative opposition forces scored huge victories (NotiSur, Dec. 4, 2015, and Jan. 8, 2016), marked a real turning point for the referendum campaign in Bolivia. The developments there energized the contest in Bolivia, and yet the campaign failed to foster the kind of real exchange of ideas that a matter of such importance required, not just for Bolivia, but for all of South America, where governments that had seemed like models to emulate are falling by the wayside one by one.
The Bolivian opposition, encouraged by the success of their counterparts in Argentina and Venezuela and alarmed by a series of polls favoring the reelection option, reacted with a wave of personal attacks...
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