Argentina's polarization continues ahead of October midterm elections.

AutorGaudin, Andres

On Aug. 11, amid an intense media campaign against the government, which more than once crossed the line to assume destabilizing characteristics, Argentines voted in the second simultaneous primary elections (Primarias Abiertas Simultaneas y Obligatorias, PASO) in the country's history. PASO is the process for choosing candidates for the Oct. 27 midterm elections, in which half (129) of the Chamber of Deputies and one-third (24) of the Senate will be elected.

Although PASO's aim is to determine which groups are eligible to participate in the national election--the eligibility threshold is 1.5% of the vote --and which faction has the lead within each party, it is clear that, in the context of the unsustainable polarization, the results lend themselves to other speculations. Some will say that President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK)--leader of the Frente para la Victoria (FPV)--came out the winner because the FPV received more votes nationally than any other party. Others will say that she suffered a defeat because the combined tally of the opposition groups--from the far right to the left--was greater than that of the FPV. But neither analysis is correct. Both are erroneous readings of a complex mechanism put in practice in 24 districts that does not allow a single interpretation.

In the wake of PASO, the only serious conclusion is that, for the government, the final numbers are a clear wake-up call, and, for the opposition, they spotlight a new political actor (Sergio Massa) who came on the scene with such high visibility that it is now clearly impossible, because of the deep differences, for the enemies of the process led by the president to unite under one banner.

Massa was CFK's Cabinet chief until he was fired for reasons that are not entirely clear. He is mayor of Tigre, a Buenos Aires suburb, and did not leave the FPV until two months ago, after the opposition media built him up as a potential national leader. He then formed a political group with other FPV dissidents and beat the FPV candidate to run for the lower-house seat to represent Buenos Aires province.

Midterms a portent of October outcome?

Deputies and senators will be elected in October, but everyone is aware that all groups have their eyes on the 2015 presidential elections. The seats being filled are for those elected in 2009, the worst election of the Kirchnerismo decade (NotiSur, July 10, 2009), which began with the 2003 election (NotiSur, May 23, 2003) of the...

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